基于ARIMA模型的宁波生活用电总量的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Domestic Electricity Consumption of Ningbo Based on ARIMA Model

在现在的科技化社会,电与每个人息息相关,对用电量进行预测并做好调配控制是不可或缺的。通过1978—2011年宁波市生活用电总量数据,利用时间序列分析的方法,对用电量进行建模,发现其内在的规律性。结果显示:宁波生活用电量数据服从异方差的ARIMA(2,2,0)模型,通过该模型对未来几年的用电量进行预测,可以为政府制定相应的政策提供一定的依据。

Abstract. In current technological society, electricity is closely related to everyone. It is indispensable to forecast, deploy and control the electricity consumption. In accordance with total electricity consumption of Ningbo from 1978 to 2011, this paper utilizes time series analysis method to construct a model of electricity consumption and finds the inherent law. The results show that domestic electricity consumption of Ningbo obeys ARIMA （2,2, 0） model of heteroscedasticity. By this model, we can predict the electricity consumption in the next few years so as to provide certain data for the government to formulate corresponding policies.