农民工迁移、户籍制度改革与城乡居民生活差距

Labor Migration,Hukou System and Urban-Rural Disparity

本文构建出一个具有城乡二元经济结构的动态随机一般均衡模型,探讨二元经济体系下农民工迁移、户籍制度改革及周期性波动因素如何影响城乡居民生活水平。基于2000—2012年季度数据的贝叶斯估计结果表明,本文模型对实际数据具有很高匹配度,并得到以下研究结论:(1)乡区生产技术进步与宽松型货币政策有利于缩小城乡居民消费与收入差距;(2)城乡居民偏好冲击分别解释了各自消费的大部分波动,城镇居民收入的大部分波动可由城区生产技术冲击所解释,乡村居民收入波动的主要解释因素为劳力迁移成本冲击;(3)若政府调整现行户籍制度以降低农民工迁移成本,不论从长期还是短期而言,都有利于提高城乡居民消费与收入,而且还可以缩小城乡居民生活差距。

In this paper, we construct a DSGE model to analyze the extent to which urbanrural disparity is affected by labor reallocation between urban and rural areas, an institutional change in Hukou system, and various shocks on the economy. We estimate our model using Bayesian method and data from 2000 to 2012, and the results indicate that the model replicates the observable data well. Our main conclusions are as follows： （1） favorable rural productivity shocks and positive monetary shocks mitigate urban-rural disparity in income and consumption. （2） Sector consumption is mainly explained by sector-specific preference shock, respectively; urban income is mainly explained by urban productivity shocks, while rural disposal income is primarily explained by migration costs shocks. （3）Whether it is in the short run or in the long run, an institutional change through lowering labor migration costs increases income and consumption in both areas and mitigates urban-rural disparity.