计及风险成本的配电网变电站规划方法

Distribution substation planning considering risk cost

不确定因素处理方法的合理性将会直接影响配电网变电站规划的最优结果。在全寿命周期成本理论的基础上,改进了变电站的选址定容模型中不确定因素的量化处理方法,计入负荷、电价和土地价格的不确定性,建立以全寿命周期成本最低为目标函数的变电站规划模型。算例分析验证了所提规划方法的合理性,与传统规划方法相比,采用所提方法的全寿命周期成本较低,经济性更好。

The rationality of uncertainty factor treatment will directly influence the optimal result of distribution substation planning. Based on the theory of LCC（Life Cycle Cost）,an improved quantization method is proposed for the uncertainty factors in the model of substation locating and sizing,such as load,electricity price and land price,and a substation planning model is built with the minimum LCC as its objective function. Case analysis verifies the rationality of the proposed method,which has lower LCC than traditional planning method does.