城市电力饱和负荷分析技术及其应用研究综述

Survey of saturated load analysis technology for urban power system and its application

综述了当前城市电力饱和负荷分析技术及其应用研究情况,阐述了研究饱和负荷的背景和意义,分析了城市电力负荷的特点,提出饱和负荷分析应包括规模、时间和空间3个部分。归纳了电力负荷趋于饱和的判据,比较了饱和负荷分析与传统负荷预测的异同。从分析对象和分析机理上对现有分析方法和数学模型进行了分类和概述,并总结了国内外基于饱和负荷分析结论的城市电网规划、电源布局、网源协调、网架优化等方面的应用情况。在此基础上,提出未来的研究应注重探索基于经济发展阶段的饱和负荷分析技术,并与电网规划有效衔接。

The present saturated load analysis technology for urban power system and its application are summarized. The background and significance of saturated load research are expounded,the characteristics of urban power load are analyzed,and it is proposed to include three parts in the saturated load analysis,i.e. scale,temporality and spatiality. The criterions of load saturation are summarized,and the similarities and differences between the saturated load analysis and the traditional load forecast are compared. The current analysis methods and mathematical models are classified and summarized from the viewpoints of analysis object and mechanism and the applications of saturated load analysis in urban network planning,power source layout,grid-source coordination,network optimization,etc. are described,based on which,it is proposed that,the future research should focus on the saturated load analysis technology for economic development phases and its effective connection to network planning.