基于两阶段模型的中国海外石油投资区位选择影响因素研究

Empirical Analysis on Determinants for China's Overseas Oil Investment-based on Heckman Two-Stage Model

以中国石油进口来源国为样本,综合考虑东道国国内生产总值、石油资源、东道国与中国经济贸易情况以及东道国政治与商业风险情况等因素,选择了17个变量,利用Heckman Two-Stage模型分析了这些因素对中国海外石油投资区位选择决策的影响.研究结论指出,中国海外石油投资国家选择与其在选定国家投资规模的影响因素有所不同.前者主要受东道国GDP规模、GDP增长率、腐败控制力度等的影响,后者则受东道国GDP规模、石油出口能力、经济稳定状况的影响更加显著.另外,东道国货币价值及东道国法律制度情况对两者都产生显著的影响,但作用正好相反.

This paper takes source countries of China＇s crude oil import as samples,selects17 variables regarding to the overall economic situation,oil resources,economic connections with China and local political and commercial risks,and applies Heckman Two-Stage model to study their impact on the decision making of overseas oil investment,and also different degree of influences in various regions.Analysis indicates that the most prominent factors affecting the likelihoods of the overseas oil investment and its scales have significant differences.The former is mainly affected by source countries＇ GDP,GDP growth and corruption;while the latter is more affected by source countries＇ GDP,oil export ability and economic condition.Besides,source countries＇ exchange rate and law condition have significant but opposite effect on both.