基于累积前景理论的石油管道路径方案优选

An Optimum Scheme Selection Method for Oil Pipeline Route Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory

建立以一种基于前景理论的石油管道输送路径方案优选方法.首先依据决策者对各个属性的期望,将具有清晰数、区间数和语义短语三种形式的决策矩阵转化成为前景决策矩阵.其次,再利用主客观赋权偏差最小的思想,构建组合赋权模型,计算各个属性的权重;然后,根据决策者对待收益和损失的不同风险态度,计算各个方案的累积前景值.最后,以石化某油田外输管道路径方案问题为实例,介绍了该方法的决策流程,为解决同类工程方案优选问题提供了一种新的途径.

This present study proposes an optimum scheme selection for oil pipeline route based on cumulative prospect theory.First,according to the decision maker＇s expectation for each attribute,the decision matrix with clear numbers,interval numbers and linguistic assessment terms is transformed into a prospect decision matrix.Second,combination weighting approach is adopted to calculate the weight of each attribute based on minimum deviation of subjective and objective weighting.Then,on the basis of the different risk attitudes of decision makers with gains and losses,the cumulative prospect value of each alternative solution is calculated.Finally,a certain oil pipeline route scheme issues example is used to introduce the decision-making process of the described method,which provides a new way to solve the similar engineering scheme selection.