桥梁运营期汽车燃烧风险概率模型及应用

The Risk Probability Model of Vehicle Burning Accident During Bridge Operation Period and Its Application

利用模糊故障树风险分析方法对桥梁运营期汽车燃烧事故概率进行预测。根据故障树逻辑关系构建了汽车燃烧风险因素的模糊故障树;采用模糊数表述故障树基本事件发生概率,克服了故障树底事件发生概率不易确定的困难,提出了基于模糊故障树原理的桥梁运营期汽车燃烧风险概率模型,并将其应用到武汉鹦鹉洲长江大桥运营期汽车燃烧风险分析。结果表明,武汉鹦鹉洲长江大桥发生油罐车燃烧事故的概率约为44.124年/次,在100年设计基准期内发生2.26次;小汽车发生燃烧事故的概率约为4.121年/次,在100年设计基准期内发生24.27次;客车发生燃烧事故的概率约为9.286年/次,在100年设计基准期内发生10.78次;货车发生燃烧事故的概率约为24.041年/次,在100年设计基准期内发生4.16次。研究结果可为桥梁抗火设计与防范措施提供理论决策依据。

This paper introduced fuzzy fault tree method to calculate the vehicle burning probability. The fault tree model was established by analyzing risk factors~ logical relationship. Because it is not easy to accurately determine the happened probability of risk factor, fuzzy number was introduced to solve this problem. So we established the risk probability model of vehicle burning accident during bridge operation period based on the fuzzy fault tree, and this model was used to analysis the risk of vehicle burning on Yingwuzbou Yangtze River Bridge. It shows that tank burning accident probability is about 44. 124 years, in the whole design reference period it may occur 2. 26 times; car was 4. 121 years, which may occur 24. 27 times; coach was 9. 286 years, which may occur 10. 78 times; truck was 24. 041 years, which may occur 4. 16 times. It could play certain reference significance for fire design of bridges and the preventive measures.