技术进步对中国碳排放的影响——基于变参数模型的实证分析

The Effect of Technological Advance on China's Carbon Dioxide Emission:An Empirical Analysis Based on the Variable Parameter Model

从STIRPAT方程出发,运用1997—2010年中国省市区面板数据建立变参数模型,对我国二氧化碳排放的影响因素进行实证分析,着重研究技术进步对碳减排的动态影响。研究结果表明:技术进步、经济发展和人口数量与中国的碳排放存在长期稳定的协整关系,其中,经济发展对碳排放具有较强的促进作用,人口数量对碳排放的影响呈现双向特征,而技术进步会在一定程度上抑制碳排放。要从根本上解决碳排放问题,则需要依靠技术进步,加大R&D活动中对低碳技术的研发投入,提高能源利用效率。

Starting from the STIRPAT equation, using panel data of Chinese provinces from 1997 to 2010, this paper establishes a variable parameter model to conduct empirical analysis on the determinants of carbon dioxide emissions, and especially probe into the dynamic effects of technology advance on carbon dioxide emissions in China. The results show that there is a long- term stable co -integration relationship between the technology advance, economic development, population and carbon dioxide emissions in China. While economic development increases carbon emissions, the relationship between population and carbon dioxide emissions is mutual, but the technology advances will restrain the carbon dioxide emissions to a certain extent. In order to solve the problem of carbon emissions fundamentally, we need to rely on technology advance, and increase the investment of low - carbon technologies in R＆D activities to improve energy efficiency.