基于改进灰色模型的我国天然气产量预测研究

China's Natural Gas Demand Forecast Based on the Improved Gray Model

在灰色预测模型的研究基础上,针对灰色预测模型拟合结果误差方面的问题,引入了广义翁氏模型的对数方程式积分形式,以此思想给出了灰色预测模型提高预测精度的理论依据及其改进过程,构建改进后的灰色预测模型.将该改进后的模型用于模拟我国2002年至2011年天然气产量数据,结果显示该改进模型的拟合结果优于改进过程中所应用的任何一个单独模型的拟合结果.使用改进模型预测了2012年至2025年我国天然气产量数据.

Focusing on the larger error of the gray forecast model fitting results, we introduce Generalized Weng Model＇ s logarithmic equation in integral form that based on the gray forecast model. This thought gives gray forecasting model a new way to improve the prediction accuracy of the theoretical basis and its improvement process. Then we try to build improved gray prediction model. The improved model is used to simulate the natural gas production data of 2002--2011. The results show that the improved model simulation results are better than any single model simulation results applied in the process of improvement. Finally by using the improved model China＇ s natural gas production from 2012 to 2025 is forecasted.