户籍制度、资本积累与城市经济增长

Huji System, Capital Accumulation, and Urban Economic Growth

户籍制度改革一直是中国城镇化过程中的重要问题。但是在以经济增长为目标的背景下，户籍制度作为一种筛选机制，一直是促进城市经济增长的重要工具。本文认为不同户籍政策的实质是物质资本和人力资本组合的差异，并从经典的经济增长理论出发，分析了放开户籍限制对城市人均产出的稳态水平的影响，发现城市政府户籍政策改革的激励来自于从人口迁移中获得的资源重新配置效益，即目的在于提升本地区的物质资本和人力资本积累，而不是“稀释”城市的人均资本量。本文同时发现户籍制度对经济调整速度有一定的影响，当稳态水平对户籍制度变化足够敏感时，放松户籍限制可能放缓收敛速度。实证表明，户籍制度越松，经济增长速度越慢，同时放开户口，则降低收敛速度，稳态水平对于户籍制度相当敏感。对于东、中、西部地区，户籍制度变化对经济增长的影响以及影响路径存在差异，本文的政策含义在于在新型城镇化下，单纯的户籍改革不可能解决城乡分割问题，核心在于提高迁移人口所拥有的物质资本和人力资本量。

Huji （ i. e. household registration） system reform has always been an important issue in the process of urbanization. Huji system as a sifting mechanism plays important roles in both welfare allocation and economic growth. This paper holds that the essence of different Huji policies is the combination difference between physical capital and human capital. Meanwhile, from the perspective of classic economic growth theory, the paper analyzes the influence that loosening Huji limitations has on the equilibrium of per capita output. The paper finds that local governments will reform the Huji system only when they have the inspirations, e.g. , local economy can gain resource relocation benefit from population mobility, which aims at promoting local physical capital and human capital aoeumulation rather than reducing the capital per capita. The paper also finds that Huji system has certain impacts on the economic restructuring speed.Loosening Huji limitations may reduce the economic convergence speed when the equilibrium is sensitive to the changes of Huji system, which is another reason affecting the Huji system reform. Empirical results indicate that in the condition that the less limitations the Huji system has and the slower the economic growth speed is, the convergence speed will slow down when the Huji limitation is abolished, which shows that the equilibrium is highly sensitive to Huji system. As for the eastern, central, and western regions, there is a difference in the impacts and impact paths that Huji system changes have on the economic growth. The policy implications of this paper lies in that amid the new type of urbanization, the single Huji system reform cannot solve the urban-rural segmentation, and the key is to improve the physical capital and human capital carried by the migrant population.