农业保险对农户生产行为影响研究

An Empirical Research on the Impacts of Agricultural Insurance on Production Behaviors of Farmers

农业保险能否引发农户生产行为转移,是一个具有重要的理论和政策意义的课题。本文通过采用实证方法和经济计量工具,对农业保险与农户生产行为的关系进行了研究。主要结论是:农业保险通过同一生产行为内部和不同生产行为之间的收入替代水平和农业保险补偿程度,从而影响农户生产行为。当前的农业保险收入补偿水平满足了大多数农户的收入风险分散预期,从而对农户的主要农作物的生产行为产生固化作用。基于吉林省616户参保农户的面板数据,若以政策性补贴保险政策引导农户生产行为转变,可以考虑采取多种补贴模式:一是高保障、低补贴模式;二是低保障、低补贴等模式;三是高保障、高补贴模式。若保障农民的收入稳定增长,则宜采用高保障、适度补贴模式。

It is important to research on how the agricuhural insurance transfers the production behavior of farm- ers. By using empirical methods and econometric tools, we studied the relationship between agricultural insurance and the farmers＇ production behavior. The main conclusions are：agricultural insurance influences farmers＇ produc- tion behaviors through the internal or external income replacement level and the insurance plan＇ s compensation lev- el ;the current agricultural insurance compensation level meets most households＇ expectation for risk spread, and therefore solidifies their production behaviors for major crops. Based on the panel data of 616 insurance participating households ,if we want to change their current planting behaviors through policy-subsidized insurance, we can con- sider multiple subsidy methods：firstly the high insurance protection, low subsidy model;secondly, the low insurance protection, low subsidy model, and thirdly, the high insurance protection, high subsidy model. If we want to ensure the steady increase of income for farmers, we can combine high insurance protection with an appropriate level of subsidy.