基于GM(1,1)预测模型的中药材价格指数预测

Prediction of Chinese Herbal Medicine Price Index Based on Gray GM(1,1)Prediction Model

目的:选择合适的预测模型对中药材价格进行预测。方法:应用离散形式的差分方程求解法建立中药材价格指数的灰色GM(1,1)差分预测模型,用程序简洁、预测精度高的美国The MathWorks公司出品的商业数学软件(MATLAB)实现模型算法。结果:模型预测结果显示,小误差几率、均方差比检验等级为好,相对误差检验等级为合格,可见预测效果十分理想。结论:该模型适用中药材价格指数的中期预测。

OBJECTIVE： To choose suitable prediction model to predict Chinese herbal medicine price. METHODS： Gray GM （ 1,1 ） prediction model of Chinese herbal medicine price index was established by difference equation in discrete form. Model algorithm was obtained by using MATLAB with simple procedure and high accuracy of prediction manufactured by The MathWorks in USA. RESULTS： Model prediction showed that small error probability and mean variance ratio test were in good level, and relative error test was in accreditation level. The prediction effect was desired very much. CONCLUSIONS： The model is suitable for medium-term prediction of Chinese-herbal medicine price.