碳强度约束的宏观效应和结构效应

Macro Effect and Structural Effect of Carbon Intensity Constraint

本文采用动态可计算一般均衡模型模拟了碳强度约束在中国宏观层面和产业层面的影响。结果表明,近期内中国需要加快降低碳强度才能实现既定的碳强度约束目标。碳强度约束将导致化石能源产品和碳密集型产品的价格有所上升,从而对中国的经济增长和国内需求特别是投资产生一定的负面影响,并导致全社会平均工资率、资本租金率和投资收益率略有下降。绝大多数部门的国内供给和总产出也会有所下降。不过,出口减少的主要是化石能源供应和碳密集型部门,许多劳动密集型和技术密集型部门的出口则可能增加,并使出口总量有所增加。绝大多数部门的进口也会下降,但一些碳密集型部门的进口有可能上升。与此同时,能源消耗和碳排放总量会大幅度下降,其中绝大部分由火力发电发热及其供应业贡献。本文认为,一方面可以通过开征碳税等政策保证碳强度约束目标得以实现,另一方面采取一些有效措施,如加快发展清洁能源、积极推广节能技术以及鼓励各部门特别是火力发电发热及其供应业改善能效,以强化碳强度约束的节能减碳效应,同时降低其对经济的负面影响。

We use a dynamic computable equilibrium model to simulate the impacts of carbon intensity constraint at the macro and sector level in China. The results indicate that China should accelerate decreasing carbon intensity in the near future to realize the planned carbon intensity constraint target. The carbon intensity constraint will significantly raise the prices of fossil fuels and carbon intensive products, thus it will cause small but negative impact on China＇s economic growth and domestic demand, especially the investment, and cause the social average wage rate, capital rent rate and return rate of investment to decrease. The domestic supply and total output of most of the sectors will also decrease. However, the sectors whose exports will decrease are mainly the fossil fuels and carbon intensive sectors. The exports of many labor intensive and technology intensive sectors may increase. The imports of most of the sectors will decrease but the imports of several carbon intensive sectors may increase. At the same time, there will great drops in total energy consumption and carbon emissions, most of which are contributed by the sector of fire-based power and heat production and supplying. We suggest on the one hand the government may adopt policies, such as carbon tax, to achidve the carbon intensity constraint target, on the other hand the government may take measures, such as accelerating the development of non-fossil fuels, promoting energy saving technologies and encouraging each sector especially the sector of fire-based power and heat production and supplying to improving their energy efficiency, to strengthen the energy saving and carbon mitigating effects of carbon intensity constraint and reduce its negative effect on economy.