人民币汇改进程及其动因的建模研究

A Modeling Study on the Progress and Driving Factors of the Reform of RMB Exchange Rate Regime

通过对人民币汇率政策突变式调整行为的建模,更加准确地描述人民币汇改进程的主要特征,并剖析汇改的根本推动因素。研究发现,人民币汇改进程中,汇率形成机制发生了多次突变式调整;美元的作用在逐步弱化,而非美元类货币正逐渐成为有效汇率的重要支撑;中国经济基本面的变化是推动人民币汇改进程的根本内在因素,而国际贸易往来,特别是贸易伙伴国的逆差变动也会对汇改决策产生一定的间接影响。

This paper applies a bias corrected Sup F test to inspect the sudden changes in the reform progress of RMB ex- change rate regime （ RMB ERR） ,and consequently describes the characteristics of the reform progress more correctly by model- ing structural change equation. The empirical study finds that RMB ERR did have suddenly been adjusted several times in the reform progress,and the power of US dollar effecting on RMB ERR is progressively shrinking,while the non-USD currencies are turning more and more important. Besides,the fundamental causes for promoting the reform are the changes of China economy, while not the pressures from other countries ,though the deficit also effects the decision of the reform indirectly.