中国农业全要素用水效率及其影响因素分析

Research on Agricultural Total-factor Water Use Efficiency and Its Influencing Factors in China

借鉴全要素用水效率的测度思路,运用超效率DEA方法和Tobit模型展开农业全要素用水效率的测度及影响因素分析,研究发现:全国农业全要素用水效率呈先降后升再回落走势,东、中、西部呈递减格局,且西部显著低于东、中部;年降水量、农产品进出口以及供水结构中地下水所占比例与农业用水效率均呈较显著的正向关系;人均水资源量与用水效率呈负向关系,表明丰水地区需加强节水措施;在灌溉费与农业全要素用水效率关系上,全国、东部和中部模型结果与西部模型结果表现不一,但灌溉费与每亩灌溉水量呈显著的负向关系,表明灌溉费的节水效应是显著的,也意味着水价政策的节水效应将促进节约水量流向用水效益更高的用水户,进而提高整体的农业用水效益。

According to the estimation idea of agricultural total - factor water use efficiency, the efficiency is es- timated by the method of super - efficiency DEA. On the basis of the efficiency estimation, the influencing factors of the efficiency are tested by Tobit model. Some conclusions are as follows： During research period, agricultural to- tal - factor water resource use efficiency shows decline - rise - decline trend ; the efficiency of East, Middle and West in China is on the decrease, particularly the efficiency of western China is obviously lower than the one of east- ern and central China;Annual precipitation, import and export of agricultural products and the proportion of under- ground water in water structure have positive significant effects on agricultural total - factor water use efficiency; Water of per capita has a negative impact on agricultural total - factor water utility efficiency, this shows that water - saving measures should be enhanced in water - rich area; The study on the relation of irrigation fees and water u- tility efficiency has shown that the western model is different. But a results of the nation, eastern and middle model are the same, while the result of significant negative relation between irrigation fees and irrigation water per acre shows that water - saving effects of irrigation fees are remarkable. This means that saved water would be promoted to flow to higher- efficiency water users and overall agricultural water benefits improved.