摘要
近年来农产品金融化现象突出表现在农产品市场和期货市场、货币市场、国际市场的联动，农产品的金融属性日益明显。基于2000-2012年芝加哥商品交易所玉米期货价格的月度数据，从农产品金融化视角分析玉米期货价格波动情况，选择货币供给量、货币价格和投机情况三方面可量化因素分析对玉米期货价格的影响。结果表明：货币供给量和投机资本对农产品期货价格有推动作用，而美元指数对价格有抑制作用，金融化因素对玉米期货价格造成不同程度的影响。最后根据分析结果，建议加强农产品期货市场的风险防范，完善我国农产品期货市场，防范过度投机。
In recent years, financialization plays an outstanding role in the agricultural commodity market and futures market. There is close linkage among futures market, money market and international market. Based on the monthly data of corn futures price on Chicago Board of Trade from 2000 to 2012, this paper analyzes CBOT corn futures price volatility in the perspective of agricultural financialization. The paper chooses three factors： money supply quantity, the price of the currency and speculation factor to analyze price volatility. The empirical a- nalysis results show that： the money supply and speculative capital play a role in promoting agricultural futures prices, while the US dollar index suppresses the price from rising. Financialization factors cause varying degrees of impact on corn futures prices. Finally, according to the analysis, it is recommended to strengthen the agricultural futures market risk prevention, improve China＇s agricultural futures market to prevent excessive speculation.
出处
《西北农林科技大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2014年第4期79-84,共6页
Journal of Northwest A&F University(Social Science Edition)
基金
国家社科基金重大项目(11&ZD010)
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(11YJA790203)
南京农业大学基本科研业务费专项基金(Y0201100270)
关键词
农产品金融化
投机资本
非商业交易者
玉米期货
agricultural financialization
speculative capital
non-commercial traders
corn futures
