基于多属性局内决策的应急预案启动模型

The Activating Model of Contingency Plans Based on Multi-attribute Online Decision Making

通过对突发事件造成损失的连续性扩展和结束时间部分信息的扩展,基于多属性决策方法和集结损失函数,研究管理者面对突发事件应该何时启动应急预案的问题。在没有突发事件损失函数信息的条件下,利用局内决策理论与方法构建了决策者何时启动应急预案的启动模型,并利用竞争比说明了该方案的有效性。在此基础上,通过数值分析验证了启动方案的有效性。

Through the continuous extension of the loss caused by the disruptions and the extension of the partial in -formation of end time , the paper explores when managers should activate contingency plans based on the multi -attrib-ute decision making method and concentration of loss function .In the absence of information of loss function about unexpected events , the author tries toconstruct anactivating model by taking the theory and methods of online decision making.The author also uses the competitive ratio to prove the effectiveness of the model .On this base,further nu-merical analysis shows the effectiveness of contingency plans .