状态概率矩阵及其在GO法中应用

State probability matrix and its application to GO methodology

状态组合算法和概率公式算法是GO法常用的定量分析方法,但对于多输入多状态的复杂系统,二者的计算均过于烦琐.结合两种算法,提出了一种简化的GO定量概率矩阵算法.首先引入状态概率矩阵的概念,对常用操作符导出基于矩阵的定量计算公式;然后针对系统中共有信号的修正,提出了对任意多状态共有信号均适用的新算式;最后通过两个算例的可靠性计算,证明了所提算法的有效性.新算法不仅便于分析操作符状态和信号流状态之间的组合关系,而且算式直观、计算简单、易于编程,尤其在多输入多状态系统的可靠性计算上具有更大的优势.

State combination and probability formula algorithms are the two commonly used quantification analysis algorithms of GO methodology,but their calculations are too complicated for complex systems with multi-input and multi-state signals.Combining the two algorithms,a simplified GO quantification probability matrix algorithm is presented.Firstly,concept of state probability matrix is introduced and matrix-based quantitative formulas for common operator are derived.Then, based on revising of shared signals,a new equation is presented suitable for any multi-state shared signal.Finally,the results of two examples show that the algorithm is effective.The new algorithm is not only suitable to analyze the state combination relations between operator and signal flow,but also has the advantages of intuitive formula,simple calculation,easy programming,especially a greater advantage in reliability calculation of multi-input multi-state system.