2013年世界船舶市场评述与未来展望

Review of world ship market in 2013 and future prospect

文章对2013年的世界经济发展作了概述,回顾和总结这一年的船舶市场,并对未来的发展方向进行预测。2013年的世界经济复苏缓慢,经济上行动力仍然不足。航运市场上,干散货船呈现"先抑后扬"的走势,BDI指数创下三年来的新高,油船和集装箱船走势低迷。船舶市场上已释放出一些积极的信号,新船订单量大幅攀升,船价企稳回升。三大主力船型表现相对抢眼,但海工装备订单出现下滑。2014年,预计世界经济形势将有所好转,但未来相当长一段时间都将维持低速增长。随着干散货船和油船运力增幅逐年下降,这两种船型的运力过剩现象将得到改善。然而,集装箱船运力过剩的问题依然十分突出,海工装备市场在中、短期内都有望维持较高的景气度。

After summarizing world economy development in 2013, this paper reviews ship market of this year and forecasts its future. In 2013, world economy undergoes slow recovery but with insufficient economic power. Freight of bulk carrier decreased before rebounded in shipping market, and BDI index presented a new high in three years, while tanker and containership kept downturn. Some optimistic signals emerge in ship market, such as sharply increased new orders, rallied ship price, and eye-catching performance of three outstanding main types of ship. However, orders of ocean engineering equipment show downslide. The world economy is expected to turn better in 2014, but on a low-speed for quite a long time in future. Since shipping capacity of bulk carrier and tanker has been on the decrease year by year, superfluous problem will be improved. However, shipping capacity of container ships remains surplus. Hopefully, offshore engineering equipment will keep blooming in short to medium term.