上海产业结构变迁与经济增长关系的实证分析

The Analysis of the Relationship between Industrial Structures Change and Economic Growth in Shanghai

以1950～2012 年上海数据为样本, 通过测度产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化指标, 构建产业结构变迁与经济增长计量经济模型表明 产业结构合理化与经济增长之间的关系较为稳定, 而高级化则表现出较大不确定性, 且产业结构合理化对经济发展的作用要远大于产业结构高级化; 对服务业各行业的分析发现, 金融业、信息服务和软件业、房地产业、水利与环境及公共设施管理业、交通运输与仓储及邮政业、住宿与餐饮业、居民服务业、文化体育与娱乐业等行业结构合理较低, 并从生产性服务业发展、专业培训、市场化改革、服务外包、电子商务推进、IT 技术融合、绩效工资改革、房价调控等角度为上海提高整体国民经济和服务业的产业结构合理程度提出一些建议和措施.

By calculating the indexes of industrial structure rationalization and industrial structure advanced development, and analyzing therelationship between industrial structure change and economy growth through econometric mode on the basis of Shanghai＇s data during 1950-2012,it is concluded that there is a much stable relationship between economic growth and industrial structure rationalization, while the relationshipbetween economic growth and industrial structure advanced development is unstable to a certain extent, and the industrial structure rationalizationhas much greater effect on the economic growth than industrial structure advanced development. As to service industry of Shanghai, the level of itsstructure rationalization is much lower in terms of finance industry, information transmission, computer service and software industry, real estateindustry, water conservancy, environment and public facility management industries, hoteling and catering, community service and other serviceindustries like culture, sports and entertainment. The paper puts forward the corresponding measures and suggestions from the views of producerservice industry development, professional personnel education and training, market -oriented reform, services outsource, electronic commercepopularizing, information technology integration, performance-based pay reform, housing price regulation and so on.