中国通货膨胀与相对价格可变性——基于长期效应与短期效应的实证分析

Relationship Between Inflation and RPV Based on Long-term Effect and Short-term Effect in China

在构建通货膨胀与RPV关系理论模型的基础上,运用面板数据固定效应估计量来检验中国通货膨胀对RPV影响的长期效应,并构建向量误差修正模型来分析中国通货膨胀对RPV影响的短期效应。研究得出,在不考虑确定性因素和外生变量的情况下,从全国来看,总体是短期效应大于长期效应;相反则是长期效应略大于短期效应。在上述两种情况下,各地区的长期效应与短期效应也明显不同。因此,国家应该多考虑不同地区通货膨胀对RPV影响的长期效应与短期效应大小,从而有效地治理通货膨胀和稳定物价水平。

This paper firstly built a theoretical model about the relationship between inflation and RPV. Then, we estimated the theoretical model to test the inflation＇s long-term effect on RPV by using panel data in China, and built the Vector Error Con＇eetion Model（VECM） to test the inflation＇s short- term effect on RPV in China. The result shows that the short-term effect is bigger than long-term effect for all country under considering the certainty factors and exogenous variables, while long-term effect is slightly bigger than short-term effect on the contrary. In both eases, the long-term effect and short- term effect are obviously different in various regions. Therefore, the government should consider the long-term effect and short-term effect of inflation on RPV to fight with inflation for keeping the overall level of prices stable.