创造效应还是替代效应——中国OFDI对进出口贸易的影响机制研究

Creation Effect or Substitution Effect:A Study on the Effect Mechanism of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment on Import and Export

本文从对外直接投资母国的视角出发，梳理了对外直接投资影响进出口贸易的效应机制，使用2003～2012年中国对45个国家及地区直接投资与进出口贸易的跨国面板进行实证检验。研究结果表明，中国对外直接投资对进出口贸易能够产生明显的创造效应，且反向进口效应要大于出口引致效应。对按照投资动机划分的经济体类型进行分样本回归发现，对外直接投资的进出口贸易效应存在国别差异。

Based on the perspective of home country of foreign direct investment,this paper examines the effect mechanism of outward foreign direct investment on import and export,and makes an empirical analysis by using multinational panel data from 2003 to 2012 of 45 hosting countries.The results show that effect of China's outward foreign direct investment on import and export remarkably exists,and the reverse import effect is much clearer than causing export effect.There are significant differences in effects of outward foreign direct investment on import and export between different nations by regressing subsamples which are classified by type of investment motivations.