广西能源消费二氧化碳排放测算与影响因素分析

An Analysis of Estimates and Influences of Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Energy Consumption in Guangxi

利用IPCC提出的碳排放折算系数测算广西能源消费CO2排放，运用卡亚公式和完全分解模型分析人口规模、人均GDP、能源强度和CO2密度对广西能源消费CO2排放量变化的影响，结果发现：在1995～2011年，对广西能源消费CO2排放量增大起正作用的依次是人均GDP和人口规模，起负作用的依次是能源强度和CO2密度。因此减小广西能源消费CO2排放量，要控制人口规模、改善产业结构、能源结构和推动节能减排技术发展。

To get in line with Chinese government＇ objective of restrictions on carbon-dioxide emissions in 2020, Guangxi is expected to make great efforts to develop low-carbon economy and cut down carbon dioxide emissions by energy consumption. IPCC reduction factor of carbon emissions is used to estimate carbon dioxide emissions by energy consumption in Guangxi. Then Kayani formula and complete decomposition model are applied to analyze the specific influence of population size, per capita GDP, energy intensity and CO2 density on the change in carbon dioxide emissions by energy consumption in playing a positive role in increasing carbon dioxide Guangxi. The result shows that from 1995 to 2011 ,the factors emissions by energy consumption in Guangxi are per capita GDP, followed by population size, while the factors playing a negative role are energy intensity,followed by CO2 density. Therefore,reduction of carbon dioxide emissions by energy consumption in Guangxi calls for control of population, improvement of the industrial structure and energy structure, and facilitation of energy-saving and discharge reduction technology development.