我国加工贸易出口对产业结构优化升级的影响——基于半对数模型和协整分析

Analysis on the Impact of Processing Trade on China's Industrial Structure Upgrading:Based on Semi-log Model and Cointegration Test

基于1987年～2012年的数据，借鉴钱纳里的半对数模型，分析我国加工贸易出口与第一、二、三产业的相关性，进一步构建加工贸易出口与第二产业的产业结构优化升级指标的协整关系模型及误差修正模型。通过实证分析得出，我国加工贸易出口对第一、三产业起抑制作用，对第二产业起促进作用。从长短期来看，加工贸易出口均能促进第二产业从劳动密集型产业为主向资本、技术密集型产业为主的产业结构转变，但所起的作用较小。

Using the semi-log model with the data from 1987 to 2012, this paper conducts the correlation analysis between the ex-port of processing trade and the first , second and third industry in China .It then constructs a cointegration model and a VEC model .The empirical analysis indicates that the export of processing trade has an inhibitory effect on the first and third industry , but a positive effect on the second industry .Both in the short and long terms , the export of processing trade can promote the transformation of the second industry from being labor-intensive to capital-and technology-intensive, though its effect is insignifi-cant.