西部地区农民对农村社会的风险感知与行为选择

Peasants′ Risk Perception and Behavior Choice for Rural Social Risks in China′s Western Regions

风险感知是农民对农村社会风险的态度和直觉判断。随着城镇化、工业化和现代化的不断推进,农村社会矛盾越来越突出,农民的风险感知也越来越强烈,而最强烈的是农民对扶贫救灾物资分配、计划生育、经济贫困、老人赡养、农村劳动力转移、拆迁占地补偿风险的感知。在此影响下,农民的政治行为比较保守,参与选举、村级事务决策和村庄公共事务的积极性不高,农民的社会行为却处于保守与激进的摇摆状态。逻辑斯蒂回归显示,农民的风险感知对农民政治行为的影响是负面的,即风险感知越高的农民越倾向于将自己的内心世界封闭起来,消极参与或不参与政治生活。与之相反,农民风险感知对其社会行为的影响却不均衡:一方面,农民选择制度性途径规避社会风险的诉求比较强烈;另一方面,他们又更倾向于通过破坏制度的群体性事件来发泄内心的恐惧和不安。这些发现对化解农村社会矛盾、降低农村社会风险有积极的帮助。

Risk perception is a kind of risk attitude towards and intuitive judgment on the risks of rural society onthe part of peasants. With the continuous advancement of urbanization,industrialization and modernization,the ru-ral social contradictions are increasingly prominent,and the peasants＇risk perception,especially on the distribu-tion of poverty alleviation and disaster relief,birth controlling,economic poverty,elderly support,rural labor trans-fer,and compensation for expropriation or relocation,is becoming stronger and stronger. Under this influence,peasants＇political behavior tends to be conservative,and the enthusiasm in the participation in the village leaderelection and decision-making in village affairs as well as public affairs tends to be not high. And their social be-havior is often in the swinging state between the “conservative”and “radical”. The logistic regression shows thatthe peasants＇risk perception has a negative impact on farmers＇political behavior. Namely,the higher a peasant＇srisk perception is,the more possibility he has to shut up his inner world,and to inactively or negatively participateor even not to participate in political life. On the contrary,the influence on the peasants＇own social behavior bytheir own＇risk perception is not balanced. On the one hand,the appeal for peasants to choose an institutional wayto avoid the social risk is very strong;on the other hand,they prefer to vent their inner fear and anxiety throughsome mass incidents,which spoil some related social institutions. These findings will positively help to solve ruralsocial contradictions and reduce the risk of rural society.