我国文化产品出口增长的二元边际分解及其影响因素

Dual margins of China's Cultural Goods Exports and their Influencing Factors

为了探寻我国文化产品出口的增长方式与影响因素,文章首次将二元边际分解应用于文化贸易领域,并通过采用产品层面的贸易数据库,分别从世界总体和主要贸易国(地区)两个层次对我国文化产品出口进行结构性分解。结果发现,虽然我国文化产品的出口增长方式优于其它货物贸易,但是近些年来其出口增量主要依赖于深度边际(特别是数量边际)的增长,而扩展边际作用甚小,我国文化产品出口的"粗放型"增长苗头值得警醒。在此基础上,利用修正后的引力模型对我国文化产品出口二元边际的影响因素进行实证检验,发现进口国的经济规模和外部冲击主要通过深度边际影响文化贸易,而我国经济规模则主要通过扩展边际对文化产品出口产生影响。

In order to explore the growth mode and influencing factors of China＇s cultural goods exports, this paper adopts the method of marginal decomposition to the field of cultural trade for the first time. Using the data from the product level, the exports of China＇s cultural goods to the whole world and to the main partners are respectively decomposed into extensive margin and intensive margin. The results indicate that although the growth mode of cultural exports is superior to other goods trade in China, but in recent years, this growth is mainly attributed to the intensive margin, especially the quantity margin, and the contribution of extensive margin is comparatively smaller, which deserves our great attention. Based on this, an empirical analysis based on the modified gravity model is given to test the influencing factors of the dual margins. It finds that the China＇s cultural trade is remarkably affected by the importers＇ economic size arid exotic shock mainly through the intensive margin, however, China＇s economic size has an significant impact on cultural trade mainly through the extensive margin.