区域人口发展对经济增长的贡献率测算研究——以济南市为例

Research on Contribution Rate Calculation of Regional Population Development to Economic Growth——A Case Study of Jinan City

为了定量研究人口变化对经济增长究竟有多大程度的影响,分别采用系统动力学和扩展生产函数模型测算人口数量控制和人口素质提高对经济增长的贡献率,详细介绍了模型的构建和贡献率的测算过程,并以济南市为例,分1978-1990年、1978-2000年、1978-2011年三个时间段进行实证研究。结果表明:人口数量的控制和人口素质的提高对经济增长的促进作用是非常显著的,且随着时间的延长,贡献率呈增长的趋势。参照已有研究和济南市人口经济发展状况,研究结果比较合理。

Aimed at studying quantitatively the effects of population change on economic growth, this paper, based on an introduction of model construction and calculation process, calculates the contribution rates of population control and population quality improvement to economic growth by adopting system dynamics and Extended Produc- tion Function Model, and then conducts an empirical study of Jinan city in three separated time periods of 1978 to 1990, 1978 to 2000, and 1978 to 2011. The research finds out that the promoting effects of population control and population quality improvement on economic growth are greatly significant with an increasing contribution rate. Such a conclusion is reasonable compared with the existing research results and the development status of Jinan population economy.