基于Bayes理论的小子样可靠性评估方法应用

Application of Reliability Assessment Methods of Small Sample Based on Bayes Theory

针对复杂武器系统技术先进、造价昂贵、可靠性鉴定试验实施难度大的情况,介绍了基于Bayes理论的小子样可靠性评估的流程、数学模型、数值计算方法,建立了可靠性评估应用方案,有效指导了该系统的可靠性评估工作,为其他型号开展小子样可靠性评估应用提供借鉴。

Aiming at advanced technology, expensive and difficult reliability evaluation test implementation of complex weapon system, according to a type, the author introduced reliability evaluation process, the mathematical model, numerical calculation method based on the theory of Bayes theorem, and established reliability evaluation application solutions, which effectively guided work of evaluation of the reliability of the system and provided reference for the other models in small sample reliability assessment application.