长三角地区旅游经济发展动力因素研究

Study on Factors of Tourism Economy in Yangtze River Delta Region

利用标准差、变异系数及核密度方法分析长三角地区旅游经济发展状况,使用分位数回归与OLS回归对比研究分析影响旅游经济发展的动力因子。旅游经济动力因子呈多元化趋势,对不同旅游经济水平的影响显著不同。随着旅游经济的发展,区域经济发展水平与人力资本的数量影响加大,资源禀赋在旅游起步阶段作用更大,基础设施中星级宾馆数量与环境状况的影响被低估,人力资本品质与对外联系对低分位点影响更大。与OLS回归相比,分位数回归结果更细致,对旅游经济发展动力因素的认识更清晰。

First, the paper utilize standard deviation, coefficient of variation and the kernel density method to depict the tourism economic development of the Yangtze Delta region. Then the authors use quantile regression and OLS regression analysis to depict the driving forces affecting the development of the tourism economy. The quantile regression analysis shows that tourism economic driving force factors present a multiple trend. In different level of tourism economy, the driving forces appear significantly different. With the development of the tourism economy, the influence of regional economic development and the number of human capital is growing. Resource endowments play an important role in the initial stage of tourism, the number of star-rated hotels in infrastructure and environ- mental impact is from weak to strong. The quality of human capital and external contact make greater influence on the low-scoring sites. In all, the result of quantile regression is more and more detailed and has a clearer under-standing on driving factors of the development of the tourism economy.