基于Hilbert-Huang变换的房地产调控政策对地产指数的影响

Study of influence estate control policies on real estate index based on the method of Hilbert-Huang transform

运用Hilbert-Huang变换的方法将地产指数价格分解成几个本征模函数的叠加,通过t检验、Hilbert-Huang频谱和功率谱分析将其归类重组,最终形成了地产指数的三个基本分量.在此基础上对2002年5月9日至2011年2月9日期间颁布的142条房地产宏观调控政策进行作用力检验,并通过模拟政策作用力探究其对地产指数价格分量的影响,最终找到53条影响市场波动价格和54条影响重大事件价格的政策.从Hilbert-Huang频谱分析上来看,2007年1月至2009年2月的一系列宏观调控政策增加了地产指数市场波动价格的波动程度.从对政策作用力的模拟来看,市场对于货币政策的反应非常灵敏,而对于某些商品房市场政策、土地市场政策等反应有一定的滞后性.政策初始作用力的大小与持续时间无关.

Based on Hilbert-Huang transform method, we decompose the real estate price index into several intrinsic mode functions which have been classified into 3 categories and constituted 3 basic components of the original sequence by following means of T test, Hilbert-Huang spectrum analysis and power spectrum analysis. Based on this, we test the 142 estate regulation and control policies which were promulgated between May 9, 2002 and February 9, 2011. By simulating the force caused by those policies we find 53 policies affected the market price and 54 policies which have stronger force affected the major event price. The results show that, from the Hilbert-Huang spectrum, the series of macro-control policies which were promulgated between January 2007 and February 2009 increase the fluctuation of market price. Moreover, the market is sensitive to monetary policies, while it has certain hysteresis to some commodity house market policies and land market policies. The initial policy force has nothing to do with the force duration.