基于三维SWOT-AHP分析法的决策应用——以海南反季节切花月季产业的发展为例

Decision-making of industry development on three-dimensional SWOT-AHP——Taking the development of off-season cut roses in Hainan for example

针对SWOT和SWOT-AHP分析的不足,通过引入古典战略思想和雷达图分析方法,完善和增强SWOT-AHP的层次结构和分析功能,创建新的三维SWOT-AHP模型及基于该模型的双线雷达图和聚合诊断示意图.其核心思想是根据孙膑"天时、地利、人和"全局决策的思想和行业视角分析相关因素的理念,以避免由于SWOT内外环境严格分割而造成的缺陷.针对模型的三维特点,设计新的SWOT-AHP分析方法.通过对海南反季节切花月季产业的发展案例分析,表明该研究方法具备更强的层次性,更清晰、更直观的表现形式,更容易定性与定量地分析行业问题,并帮助进行快速决策,可适用于产业发展分析与决策选择.

For the inadequacies of SWOT and SWOT-AHP, by introducing classical strategic thinking and radar chart, improving and enhancing the hierarchy and analysis capabilities of SWOT-AHP, tile authors propose a new three-dimensional SWOT-AHP model, and create double-line radar chart and schematic diagram of polymerization diagnosis based on the new model. The key idea is that the new model was designed to avoid the defects caused by tile strict partition of internal and external environment in SWOT based on the ＂opportunity of overall situation, favorable geography and human harmony＂ thoughts of Sun Bin, the idea which analyzed the related factors from the industry point of view. According to the characteristics of the three-dimensional model, we design a new SWOT-AHP analysis method. The case analysis of the development of off-season cut roses in Hainan show that the proposed model and methods have a stronger hierarchy, clearer and more intuitive manifestation, and are easier to qualitative and quantitative analysis of the industry problem, and are help to make decision quickly and can be applied to industrial development analysis and decision making.