高技术产业集聚外部性特征的动态性和差异性研究——基于时变参数估计的分析

Research on Dynamics and Differences of High-tech Industrial Agglomeration Externalities: Analysis by Time-varying Parameter Estimation

高新技术产业集聚区发展被视为中国实现产业转型升级的重要途径，集聚外部性效应的甑别与测定却尚存诸多争议。本文侧重于分析集聚外部性的时间性质，选取高技术产业的四个行业作为研究对象，使用中国1985—2009年28个省、市、自治区23个行业的面板数据研究高技术产业集聚外部性的长期动态特征。研究发现：（1）产业分布格局变迁确实引致集聚外部性效应发生转变，且2003年是效应发生变化的核心转折时点；（2）以2003年为转折时点，产业专业化以及多样化对产业发展的集聚外部效应呈“U”型、倒“U”型或线性特征，竞争的集聚外部性效应则呈“U”型特征；（3）行业差异方面，行业的区域集聚程度是集聚外部性效应发挥作用的重要基础，其决定了专业化和多样化外部性效应的动态特征。高技术产业集聚外部性的最大正向效应发挥需要一个与之相适宜的产业环境，同时应重视各省份产业专业化和多样化水平不同所引致的差异特征。

High-tech industry cluster is considered as an important way to achieve industrial transformation and upgrading in China, but the steamer and determination of agglomeration externalities effects still have a lot of controversies. This article focuses on the analysis of time nature of agglomeration externalities, select four of the high-tech industries as our research ob- ject, the panel data of 23 industries in 28 provinces of China between 1985 and 2009 are used to study the long-term dynamics of agglomeration externalities in high-tech industry. The results showed that, （ 1 ） Changes in the distribution pattern of indus- trial is indeed caused a shift in agglomeration externalities effect, and 2003 was the core turning point; （2） take 2003 as a turning point, agglomeration externalities from industry specialization and industry diversification to development of industry were ＂U＂ or inverted ＂U＂ type, even linear features, while externalities effects from competitive is an ＂U＂ shape characteristics ; （3） about industry differences, industry agglomeration is an important basis for the role of external effects, which determines the dynamic characteristics of external effects from specialization and diversification. To play the maximum positive effect of agglomeration, we need to nurturing an industrial environment suitable for the development of China＇s high-tech industry, disparity cause by industry specialization and diversification differences in the provinces level are also should be consider.