所有制异质、官员激励与中国的产能过剩——基于一个DSGE框架的扩展分析

Ownership Heterogeneity,Incentives of Local Officials and Excess Capacity of China: Analysis Based on the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium

本文结合新凯恩斯主义理论和经济转型的制度背景,构建纳入所有制异质与官员激励的产能过剩成因DSGE框架,基于DSGE稳态进行扩展分析。研究发现,中国的产能过剩因过剩劳动力和出口需求而越发严重:过剩劳动力为扩产企业提供实际工资不变的劳动,出口需求则为官员激励下的居民消费挤出提供销路;官员激励下的土地财政与公共职能缺位,导致居民储蓄增加,为扩产企业提供资金来源;地方政府的补贴式竞争也为企业提供扩产资金。然而,刘易斯拐点的到来和外部经济危机下的出口萎缩,表明产能过剩的有利环境正在发生改变,需要把经济资源从产能过剩行业导出,优化资源配置。而这需要以利率市场化为突破口,带动居民消费,从而化解过剩产能。

Under the new Keynesian theory and economic transition, this paper sets up a formation mechanism model of excess capacity based on the framework of DSGE, taking ownership heterogeneity and incentives of local officials into account. On the basis of DSGE, we try to analyze overcapacity problem in the process of economic transition in China. The result of re- search shows that China＇s overcapacity became more serious because of surplus labor and export demand. Surplus Labor make labor cost unchanged even if enterprises expand capacity, exports create product requirements even if Incentives of local offi- cials extrude residents consumption. Under the influence of Incentives of local officials, local governments rely on their land fi- nance, they are absent on the public functions, resolutely, households spend less and save more. The more saving provides more funds for expanding capacity. The land finance of local government provides policy subsidies to enterprises. The less spending makes export to be the way of selling these products from overcapacity. However, Lewis turning point is coming, exports are shrinking because of the economic crisis, so the resources should be flowing from industries with excess capacity to industries with strong viability, to optimize the allocation of resources. The marketization of interest rate is the best way to increase the residents＇ consumption, so as to solve excess production capacity.