房价波动、户籍歧视与城市失业

House Price Fluctuation,Census Register Discrimination and City Unemployment

本文构建了一个城市劳动力供给一失业均衡模型，引入住房价格和户籍歧视因素，得出城市房价上涨导致城市失业率下降和户籍歧视减弱引致城市失业率上升的两个命题。在此基础上，利用1998～2012年中国30个大中城市面板数据进行实证检验。实证结果表明，城市房价上涨对农村劳动力流入城市产生阻碍，导致城市失业率下降。城乡实际收入差距扩大促使农村劳动力流入城市。引发城市失业率上升。户籍歧视减弱促使农村剩余劳动力转移，为城市提供源源不断的劳动力，导致城市失业率上升。东中西部不同区域城市房价波动和户籍歧视对城市失业率影响存在显著差异。城市房价上涨，是阻碍农村劳动力向城市迁移的重要因素。因此，必须有效抑制城市房价上涨，十分重视和加强农民工的住房保障、子女入学、医疗保障等公共产品供给，促使农民工市民化。

This paper focuses on housing price and census register discrimination, builds a city labor supply-unemployment equilibrium model. The model shows two propositions that city＇s house price rises will decrease the unemployment rate and census register discrimination abates will enhance city unemployment rate. On the basis, this paper using 1998 - 2012 panel data of China＇s 30 large and medium-sized city to take the empirical test. The empirical results show that, city＇s housing price hinders rural labors im- migrate into city,then decrease the city＇s unemployment rate. The expansion of urban and rural income gap tends to attract rural la- bors immigrate into city, then rise unemployment rate. Census register discrimination weakened will lead rural surplus labors to provide everfount labor for city, then rises unemployment rate. The different areas of china has a significant difference about the influence of house prices and census register discrimination to city unemployment rate. City house price has become a major factor of impeding rural labor flowing into city. Therefore, we must effectively inhibit the city house prices rose, attaches great importance to the housing security, children to school and medical security of migrant workers, promote the migrant workers urbanized.