中国—东盟自贸区框架下中泰荔枝龙眼贸易效应分析

Analysis of Trade Effects of the Litchi and Longan between China and Thailand Based on CAFTA

运用时序趋势和弹性模型对中泰荔枝龙眼零关税贸易效应进行实证研究。结果表明,2008-2012年鲜荔枝的贸易创造效应大于贸易转移效应,鲜龙眼、龙眼干肉的贸易转移效应大于贸易创造效应;2012年,鲜龙眼贸易创造和贸易转移效应最大,鲜荔枝和龙眼干肉的贸易创造效应大于贸易转移效应,鲜龙眼和龙眼干肉的贸易转移效应占从其他国进口额的比重大于鲜荔枝。进而提出:提升荔枝龙眼产业的出口竞争力并保持该产业的可持续发展,需加大财政对特色农业发展的支持力度,调整荔枝龙眼品种结构和熟期结构,制定和实施荔枝龙眼的标准化生产体系,建立和完善荔枝龙眼的政策性保险体系。

This paper makes use of time series trend and elastic model for empirical research on zerotariff trade effect of litchi and longan in China and Thailand.Results show that the effect of trade creation of fresh litchi is greater than the effect of trade diversion and the effect of trade diversion of fresh longan and dried longan is greater than the effect of trade creation in most of years.In 2012the effect of trade creation and trade diversion of fresh longan is maximum;the effect of trade creation of fresh litchi and dried longan is greater than the effect of trade diversion;the effect of trade diversion of fresh longan and dried longan accounted for the proportion of logan importing from other countries is greater than the fresh litchi.Then put forword :to enhance export competitiveness of litchi and longan industry and maintain the sustainable development,we need to increase financial support to the development of characteristic agriculture,adjust the variety and the maturity structure,make and improve the system of insurance policy of litchi and longan.