绿色建筑决策中的风险综合评价

Comprehensive evaluation of risks in green building decision-making

绿色建筑是一新兴理念,在决策阶段存在很多不确定性因素,其风险管理具有重要的意义,本文首先分析了绿色建筑项目决策阶段存在的风险、绿色建筑决策阶段主要风险指标和因素的现状,建立合理和可行的风险评价指标体系,通过专家打分法构造判断矩阵,然后运用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法对绿色建筑决策阶段的风险,在定性分析的基础上,定量的对影响绿色建筑项目决策阶段风险因素进行科学和客观的评价,将灰色系统理论引入绿色建筑风险评价区域,给出了较明确的评价标准,实现决策风险的科学测度,为绿色建筑决策阶段的风险管理提供具体、可行的依据。

The green building is a new concept,risk management is pretty vital,because there are many uncertain factors in the decision- making stage ,this paper firstly analyzes the green building project decision-making risks, main risk index in green building decision stage and risk factors at present, set up reasonable and feasible risk evaluation index systeln, structure judgment matrix by the expert scoring method,to make scientific and objective evaluation quantitative on basis of qualitative analysis influence by analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy colnprehensive evaluation method,gray system theory was used into green building risk assessment area to get clear evaluation criteria and scientific measure of risk in decision making,to provide concrete and feasible basis for the green building risk management in phase of the decision-making.