气候变化对丹顶鹤种群在繁殖地逗留时间的影响分析

Impact of Climate Change on Stay of Red-Crowned Cranes in Their Breeding Habitat

在我国东北地区气候情景20C3M(1951—2000年)和SRESA1B(2001—2100年)数据以及1981—1990年东北地区丹顶鹤种群繁殖地分布调查数据的基础上,通过基于归一化距离的分层聚类和信息融合的理论与方法,提取影响丹顶鹤种群在繁殖地逗留时间的5个气候因子,建立丹顶鹤关于逗留时间的随机分析数学模型,并对相关模型的算法进行研究。在ArcGIS 9.3界面下,利用Matlab进行程序设计与运行,分别获得丹顶鹤种群在2041—2050和2091—2100年的最适应逗留时间、次适应逗留时间和可适应逗留时间的预测分析结果。结果表明,与1981—1990年丹顶鹤种群在繁殖地逗留时间为每年的4—9月相比,2041—2050年丹顶鹤种群在繁殖地的最适应、次适应和可适应逗留时间预测结果均为4、5、8、9和10月,2091—2100年丹顶鹤种群在繁殖地的最适应、次适应和可适应逗留时间预测结果均为4、5、9和10月。说明到2041—2050和2091—2100年,1981—1990年的东北地区丹顶鹤种群繁殖地将不再适于丹顶鹤种群繁殖。影响丹顶鹤种群在繁殖地逗留时间的因素主要是与温度相关的3个气候因子指标,影响程度由强到弱依次为月平均最高温度、月平均温度和月平均最低温度。

From the data of two climate scenarios, 20C3M of 1951-2000 and SRESA1B of 2001-2100, and the data of the 1981 - 1990 surveys of distributions of red-crowned crane breeding habitats in Northeast China, 5 climatic factors that may affect stay of red-crowned crane communities in their breeding habitats were extracted, using the theory and methods of the normalized-distance-based hierarchical clustering and information fusion technology, for establishment of a mathematical model for stochastic analysis of sojourn time of red-crowned cranes in their breeding habitats and at the same time, algorithm for the model was studied. With the aid of ArGIS9.3 and Matlab, programs were designed and run and in the end, a timetable was figured out predicting the most suitable, the second most suitable and suitable sojourn time periods for red-crowned crane communities in Northeast China during the years from 2041 to 2050 and from 2091 to 2100. During the period of 1981 -1990, crane communities stayed in the habitats from April to September, while the table listed April, May, August, September and October as suitable sojourn time for all the three grades of suitable sojourn time periods in the years of 2041 - 2050 and only April, May, September and October in the years of 2091 - 2100. The comparison shows that the breeding habitats of red-crowned cranes in Northeast China in 1981 -1990 will no longer be suitable for red-crowned cranes as breeding habitats in 2041 - 2050 and 2091 - 2100,due to climate change. Furthermore, the 3 major temperature-related factors affecting stay of red-crowned crane communities in their breeding habitats are monthly mean of daily maximum temperature, monthly mean temperature and monthly mean of daily minimum temperature, which follow a declining order of monthly mean of daily maximum temperature〉monthly mean temperature〉monthly mean of daily minimum temperature in extent of their impacts.