墨西哥湾溢油事故模拟研究

Simulation of Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill

溢油事故会对海洋、湿地和河口的生物造成严重危害。为了降低石油泄漏事故的危害，促进清理工作的顺利进行，需要了解油膜的运动路径和扩散范围，结合流、风等信息对油污的漂移进行预测。本文主要工作是利用NOAA的GNOME（General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment）溢油模型，对墨西哥湾“深海地平线”溢油事故在2010年5月8日～11日的溢油情况进行了溢油轨迹的模拟。模拟过程中，采用GOM HYCOM模式计算的流场数据和NECP的CFSR（Climate Forecast System Reanalysis）风场数据作为GNOME模型的驱动数据。并将模拟结果与卫星观测资料进行了对比验证，结果表明GNOME模拟的溢油轨迹与卫星应急信息中心网站（Center for Satellite Based Crisis Information）提供的油污覆盖卫星图相符性良好。并研究了流场的不确定性对溢油轨迹模拟结果的影响。

Oil Spill can do harm to marine life in the oceans, wetlands and estuaries. For the purpose oflimiting the damage by a spill and facilitating cleanup efforts, it is essential to get knowledge about thespill trajectory and the area of oil slicks and predict oil drift with winds and currents. The objective ofthis work is to simulate the oil drift of ＂Deepwater Horizon＂oil spill in Gulf of Mexico between May 8,2010 and May 11,2010 with GNOME （General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment） model. Ocean currents from GOM HYCOM outputs and winds from CFSR（Climate Forecast System Reanalysis）were used to drive the GNOME model during simulation. Comparisons between simulations and satellite observations were done and the results showed that the simulation agreed well with oil spill extentmaps getting from the website of center for Satellite Based Crisis Information. The effects from uncertainty of ocean currents on the simulation results were also studied as well.