基于VAR模型的我国木质林产品出口影响因素分析

Analysis of Factors Influencing China's Export of Woody Forest Products Based on VAR Model

林产品贸易是我国对外贸易的重要组成部分，然而我国林产品出口贸易也面临着复杂的国际环境。文章以木质林产品为研究对象，分别从林产品的供给角度和需求角度分析影响我国木质林产品出口的主要因素，选取1993-2012年的年度数据，运用VAR模型，对影响我国林产品出口贸易的因素进行了实证研究，并利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解，进一步分析各因素对林产品出口的冲击效应和程度。结果显示，固定资产投资对我国木质林产品出口的影响程度很大，林业人员平均工资对我国林产品经历着先抑制后促进的作用，汇率变动对林产品出口额的有明显的推动作用。

Forest products trade is an important component of our foreign trade, but the export of China＇ s forest product is also facing the complicated international environment. In this essay, we chose wood forest products as the research object, discussed main factors affecting wood forest products export of our country respectively from demand analysis and supply analysis, and then carried out empirical research using the VAIL model with the annual data of 1993-2012 on the influencing factors of China＇ s forest products export trade. Then we used impulse response function and variance decomposition to further analyze the degree of the main factors affecting forest products export. The results showed, the degree of the influence investment in fixed assets of China on wood forest products exports was deep. The average wage of forestry personnel impacted through promoting after the inhibition on exports of China＇s forest products, Exchange rate movement on exports of forest products has a significant role in promoting the export of wood forest product.