基于有害干扰的中国省域森林生态安全评价

Research on China's provincial forest ecological security appraisal based on the detrimental interferences

近年来随着经济社会不断发展,森林生态系统受到各种有害干扰越来越多,在以可持续发展为目标和"建设生态城市,推进城市森林建设,保障城市生态安全"的背景下,研究我国各省森林生态安全状况,成为关乎我国各省城市健康发展的重要课题。在对森林生态安全与森林健康概念辨析的基础上,基于有害干扰角度,运用宏观数据,应用SPSS、Stata、Matlab等软件,采用理论分析与实证分析、定性分析与定量分析相结合的研究方法。通过主成分分析、聚类分析、模糊评价等手段对2011年我国31个省级行政区域的森林生态安全水平进行实证分析和评价。评价结果表明:在2011年研究所涉及的31个省份中,16个省级行政区域的森林生态安全水平较高,森林生态系统受有害干扰较小,整体水平较为乐观,但仍有近一半的省份森林生态系统处于不安全状态。在深入探讨评价结果和影响我国各省森林生态安全主要干扰因子的基础上,为如何维护我国森林生态安全提出了对策建议。

Due to the rapid development of economy and society, the forest ecosystem has been threatened by various harmful interferences in recent years. With the aim of ＂Sustainable Development＂ and the background of ＂Construction of Ecological City, Promotion of Urban Forest Construction, and Assurance of Urban Ecological Security＂, researches on the conditions of forest ecological security has become an urgent issue, which concerns the healthy development of cities in all provinces （provincial-level administrative regions）, China. In this contribution, based on the analyses of the concepts of ＂forest ecosystem security＂ and ＂forest health＂, a novel forest ecological security assessment index system including 16 specific three-level indicators has been proposed from the perspective of detrimental disturbances. This new index system is comparatively integrated, comprehensive, objective and highly applicable. The research was performed by combining the theoretical and empirical analysis, and by combining qualitative and quantitative analysis, and the macro data were investigated with the help of data processing software such as SPSS, Stata, and Matlab etc. And the forest ecological security standards of 31 provinces in China are empirically analyzed and evaluated based on the data in 2011, by using principal component analysis, cluster analysis, indistinct assessment methods and so on. The results indicated that among the 31 involved provinces, the forest ecological security standard of 16 provinces was in good condition with less detrimental interferences. Therefore, the overall forest ecological security standards are optimistic for the following 16 provinces： Hainan and Tibet have the highest security level of forest ecosystem nationwide and fall into the supreme safety category, with 6 provinces （Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Guangxi, Yunnan and Qinghai） being general security level, other 8 provinces （Beijing, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Sichuan, Chongqing, Shaanxi, and Gansu） being relatively security state. Whereas, there are still nearly half of the 31 provinces have insecure forest ecosystem. Among them, 12 provinces including Hebei, Shanxi, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, Fujian, Hubei, Hunan, Guizhou, Ningxia, Xinjiang were in relative less severe insecure state; Henan was in medium unsafe state; and Tianjin and Shandong were in extremely insecure state. Based on a thorough discussion of the obtained results and a careful investigation of the main disturbing factors of forest ecological security in China, some targeted recommendations on how to maintain the forest ecological security in China was suggested in this work. For instance, the work for preventing forest disease and pest hazard should be strengthened in Tianjin, Shandong, and Henan provinces; the work for preventing forest fire should be strictly enforced in Fujian, Shanxi, Hunan, Hebei, and Guizhou provinces; a comprehensive prevention and control to deal with harmful interferences should be enhanced in Hebei, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei, Ningxia, and Xinjiang provinces. To sum up, each province should take corresponding measures according to its own practical situation and principal interference factors. In addition, the prevention work for other detrimental interference factors should be performed as well in order to avoid these ones evolving to be principal factors in the near future, especially for those provinces who were interfered by various detrimental factors.