中稻生育期气象适宜度及其对产量影响的定量评价模型构建和应用

On Construction and Application of Quantitative Evaluation Model of Meteorological Suitability and Its Effect on Yield for Medium Rice in Its Growth Period

利用重庆市中稻生育期内逐旬的气象资料和农业气象指标,构建温度、降水、日照适宜度的隶属函数,采用积分回归方法计算各气象要素适宜度的逐旬效应,经过标准化后得到影响权重,最终建立综合适宜度评价模型和产量影响预估模型.利用适宜度开展中稻适应性分析,表明:中稻生育期内,重庆市各地多年状况的光、温、水适宜度差别并不大,但综合适宜度在某些生育阶段有明显的差异;大部地区在播种育秧初期、拔节—分蘖期、孕穗—抽穗期的综合适宜度较低,其余时段较高.以江津站为例开展中稻全生育期内气象条件定量评价和产量影响预估,表明:2012年综合适宜度在生长发育前期较高、后期较低,与实际情况较接近;1985-2011年的产量影响模拟值与气象产量相关显著,说明采用预估模型定量评价光温水对产量的影响具有一定的准确性.

Using ten-day meteorological data and agrometeorological index of medium rice in Chongqing, membership functions of temperature,precipitation and sunshine have been constructed,and ten-day in-fluential effects of meteorological suitability been defined,after standardization,effect weight was ob-tained,evaluation model of comprehensive suitability and prediction model of effect on yield been estab-lished finally.Adaptability analysis of medium rice by means of meteorological suitability indicated that suitability of temperature,precipitation and sunshine have little difference,but comprehensive suiltability is obvious different at some period.Comprehensive suitability is lower during seedling-raising stage,j oint-ing-tillering stage and booting-heading stage,and higher during other stages.Developing quantitative eval-uation of meteorological situation and effect on yield indicated：Comprehensive suitability is higher at pro-phase and lower at anaphase,and close to actual situation.Simulation with the model of effect on yield had notable correlation with meteorological yield from 1985 to 2011,that shows the high accuracy of the model applied to quantitative evaluation of effect on yield by meteorological situation.