中日科技创新与金融结构协同演化的实证分析与比较研究

Co-evolution of Sci-tech Innovation and Financial Structure of China and Japan

本文将科技创新与金融结构纳入一个复合的协同演化系统,构建了科技创新与金融结构有序度模型与复合系统协同度模型,并利用日本1975—2012年和中国1995—2011年的年度时间序列数据对二者之间的协同演化关系进行了实证分析与比较研究。结论表明,日本科技创新与金融结构复合系统的协同度伴随着其经济周期的波动而波动,而中国市场化改革以来随着经济的高速增长,科技创新与以股票市场为核心的直接金融市场体系之间的协同度波动剧烈。

This paper incorporates Sci-tech innovation and financial structure into a complex co-evolutionary system and examines their co-evolutionary relationship. And then it constructs their order degree model of subsystem and co-evolution degree model of complex sys- tem. Based on these models, this paper uses years of annual time-series data of 1975 to 2012 of Japan and 1995 to 2011 of China to take empirical research and comparative analysis on the relationship between Sci-tech innovation and financial structure. Conclusions show that co-evolution degree model of complex system of Sci-tech innovation and financial structrue is fluctuating being along with the fluctuations of economic cycles of Japan. However, with the rapid growth of China＇s economy, the co-operative degree of Sci-tech innovation and direct financial system is fluctuating severely.