江苏省海安县2004-2011年女性乳腺癌流行趋势分析

Analysis of the epidemic trend of the female breast cancer from 2004 to 2011 in Hai'an county,Jiangsu Province

目的：研究海安县2004-2011年女性乳腺癌的发病率、死亡率及流行趋势。方法：根据海安县2004-2011年肿瘤登记报告数据库及人口资料，进行女性乳腺癌发病率、死亡率、累积率和截缩率分析，采用年变化率（annualpercentchange，APC）模型分析各种率的时间变化趋势。结果：海安县2004-2011年女性乳腺癌粗发病率、中国标化率、世界标化率分别为17．54／10万女性人口（以下发病或死亡率单位如此同，将其省略）、11．06／10^5和10．06／10^5；35～64岁截缩世标发病率和0h70岁累积发病率分别为31．61／10^5和1．06％，居女性恶性肿瘤全部发病病例的第5位。女性乳腺癌粗发病率、中国标化率和世界标化率APC分别为10．53％、7．40％和7．68％，其中粗发病率和世界标化率呈显著上升趋势，P值均do．01；中国标化率呈上升趋势，P〈0．05。女性乳腺癌粗死亡率、中国标化率和世界标化率分别为7，02／10^5、4．43／10^5和4．09／10^5；35～64岁截缩世标死亡率和0～70岁累积死亡率分别为9．59／10^5和0．45％。居女性恶性肿瘤全部死亡病例的第6位。女性乳腺癌粗死亡率、中国标化率和世界标化率APC分别为2．62％、1．83％和1．50％，死亡趋势相对稳定，P值均〉0．05。结论：海安县2004-2011年女性乳腺癌发病率增长趋势明显，死亡率变化趋势相对稳定。

OBJECTIVE：To analyze the incidence,mortality rate and changing trends of the female breast cancer from 2004 to 2011 in hai＇an county. METHODS： Using the information of cancer registration data base and population data from 2004 to 2011 in hai＇an county, to analyze the incidence, mortality, accumulation rates, section shrinkage of the female breast cancer,and using the method of the annual percent change （APC）, to statistically analyze the time trend in rates. RESULTS： The rough incidence rate, China standardized and world standardized incidence rates of the female breast cancer from 2004 to 2011 in hai＇an county were 17.54 per 100 000 female population（the following units of morbidity or mortali ty was the same）, 11.06/10^5 , 10.06/10^5. The standardized truncated incidence rates of the female breast cancer from 35 to 64 years old were 31.61 /10^5 and the cumulative incidence in the age of 0-70 years old was 1.06% ,ranking the fifth in all incident cases of female malignancy. The APC values of the rough incidence rate, China standardized and world standardized incidence rates were 10. 53%, 7. 40% and 7. 68%, in which the crude incidence rate, the world standard rate showed significant upward trend （all P〈0.01）the China standardized rate showed a upward trend （all P〈0.05）. The rough mortality rate, China standardized and world standardized incidence rates were 7.02/10^5 ,4.43/10^5 ,4.09/10^5 ;the standardized truncated mortality rates from the age of 35 to 64 years old and the cumulative mortality from age of 0 to 70 years old were 9.59/10^5 and 0.45 %, ranking the sixth place in all female cancer deaths. The EAPC values of the rough mortality rate,China standardized and world standardized rates were 2. 62 %, 1.83% and 1. 50 %, the mortality trends showed relatively stable （all P〈0.05）. CONCLUSION： The incidence the female breast cancer from 2004 to 2011 in hal＇ an county have obvious growth trend,the changing of mortality rate was relatively stable.