实体与虚拟:二元经济之中美比较

Real Economy vs. Fictitious Economy: Comparison of the dual economy structures of China and US

实体经济与虚拟经济是现代经济二元结构。1970年代以后,美国以制造业为主体的实体经济逐渐削弱,实体经济中的新兴服务业异军突起;而同时,金融业、房地产业为主体的虚拟经济却脱离实体经济不断膨胀,这正是引发金融危机和经济难以复苏的原因之一。中国始终以实体经济为支撑,国民经济发展较为持续稳定,但虚拟经济的过度膨胀也影响到国民经济健康发展。在"后危机"时代,中国和国际社会都应吸取教训,正确处理实体经济和虚拟经济的关系,大力发展实体经济,尤其是加快先进制造业和新兴服务业的发展,以促进全球经济的复苏并持续健康发展。

The real economic sector and the fictitious economic sector constitute the dual structure of any modern economy. The last forty years in the US have been characterized by deindustrialization and financialization. The overexpansion of fictitious sector is considered to be the critical trigger of the 2008 financial crisis as well as the factor hampering economic recovery. While China＇s economic development is comparatively steady and healthy due to its solid-based real economy, there are still potential risks that the over expansion of fictitious economy would undermine China＇s economic development. It is therefore of practical significance to compare China with the United States. In the post-2008 era, the whole world should devote major efforts to developing the real economy especially the manufacturing sector and the emerging service industries to promote a healthy and sustained global economic recovery.