木薯绵粉蚧在中国的适生性研究

Potential geographic distribution of Phenacoccus manihoti Matile-Ferrero in China

【目的】明确木薯绵粉蚧在中国可能的适生区分布,为其预警监测与防控提供科学依据。【方法】利用GARP生态位模型和相关环境数据,并结合ArcGIS的插值与叠加功能,预测木薯绵粉蚧在中国的潜在地理分布。【结果】木薯绵粉蚧在中国的潜在适生区主要集中在25°N以南地区,高度适生区包括:海南、广东、广西几乎全部地区;福建南部及东部沿海地区、台湾西南地区、江西南部与广东交界地区、贵州南部与广西交界地区、云南南部与西部边境地区;次适生区为四川东南部与重庆西南部的部分地区。适生区预测结果与中国主要木薯种植区域具有高度的一致性。【建议】开展木薯绵粉蚧传入风险分析,明确该虫传入途径并制定监管措施;加强口岸检疫,严防木薯绵粉蚧随木薯引种或进口相关产品进入中国;建立监测体系,开展木薯绵粉蚧早期预警系统;加强国内引种或调运检疫,防止木薯绵粉蚧随种茎人为扩散。

[Objective]The potential geographic distribution of Phenacoccus manihoti in China was identified so as to pro- vide scientific references for early warning, monitoring and control. [Method] The GARP ecological niche model, relevant en- vironmental data coupled with the interpolation and superposition functions of ArcGIS were used to predict the potential geo- graphic distribution of Phenacoccus manihoti in China. [Result]Potential geographic distribution of Phenacoccus manihoti in China was mainly distributed in south of 25°N latitude. The high suitable areas included almost the whole region Hainan, Guangdong and Guangxi, and south and southeast costal land of Fujian Province, southwest of Taiwan Province, south of Jiangxi Province and its border with Guangdong, south of Guizhou and its border with Guangxi, and south and west borderline of Yunnan. Semi-suitable areas were southeast of Sichuan and southwest of Chongqing. The prediction results were in high consistency with the main cassava planting areas. [Suggestion]For further study, the research on risk analysis of P. maniboti should be carried out in order to indentify the spread approaches and make quarantine decisions. Entry inspection and quaran- tine of cassava products or propagating materials should be strengthened. The monitoring and early warning system should be established. The quarantine inspection for domestic introduction or transport of cassava cuttings should be enhanced to avoid man-made spread.