中国大陆红火蚁远距离传播速度探讨和趋势预测

Long-distance spreading speed and trend prediction of red imported fire ant,Solenopsis invicta Buren,in China's Mainland

根据资料绘制出不同年代中国红火蚁地理分布图,分析了分布特征,并应用面积开方法、直线距离法计算出目前中国大陆红火蚁长距离传播速度分别为26.5、48.1 km/年。建立了模拟入侵县级区域数量与入侵大陆时间长度之间关系的Gauss模型:NC=458013.8〔1-0.999989EXP(-0.000001D2)〕,并应用该模型预测出2023年中国大陆被入侵县级区域数量将达到364个。

Based on reported and collected data, the geographical distributtion maps of red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta Buren, at different periods in China were presented, and the spatial dynamic was analyzed. Area sqrt method and linear distance method were used to reveal the spreading speed of fire ant in China's Mainland as 26.5 krn/a and 48.1 km/a, respectively. The model which described the relationship between invaded county number and duration after invading the China's Mainland was presented as Nc=458013.8[ 1-0.999989 EXP（-0.000001D^2） 1, and about 364 counties would be infected in 2023.