基于改进Bayesian Bootstrap陀螺仪寿命预测研究

Study on Gyroscope Life Prediction Based On Improved Bayesian Bootstrap

陀螺仪是惯性导航系统的核心部件之一,其剩余寿命预测是惯导系统作战使用、战备测试和维修决策的重要依据。首先采用漂移布朗运动对陀螺仪进行退化建模,针对陀螺仪性能参数样本容量小的实际情况,将Bayesian Bootstrap方法引入到退化模型参数估计中。该方法是一种通过数字仿真技术扩大样本容量的方法,它完全依赖于样品本身的数据,不需要任何主观假设。面对特小样本Bayesian Bootstrap方法估计结果可信度下降的情况,提出了一种改进的Bayesian Bootstrap方法,在保证期望与方差点估计不变的情况下,缩短了其置信区间,有效地提高了预测精度,最后通过陀螺仪的寿命预测实例验证了该方法的有效性和实用性。

The gyroscope was one of the core components of the inertial navigation system （INS）, whose residual lifetime distribution prediction of INS was of great importance in operational use, combat readiness test and maintenance decision making. First, the gyroscope was modeled in its degradation process with the drift Brownian motion. In view of the small sample of the gyroscope performance parameters, the Bayesian Bootstrap method was introduced into the degradation model of parameter estimation. This method extended the amount of samples by numerical simulation. As the credibility of Bayesian Bootstrap method estimation fell for the particularly small sample, this paper put forward the improved Bayesian the Bootstrap method. It shortened the confidence interval and effectively improved the prediction accuracy in ensuring the invariance of the expectation and variance point estimation. At last the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method was proved through the gyroscope life prediction.