多种方法分析城市化对保定气温变化的贡献

Analysis on the Contribution of Urbanization on Air temperatures Variation in Baoding in Different Methods

文章通过三种方法构造不同的背景气温序列,分析近33a(1979—2011年)城市化对保定气温变化的影响。结果表明:(1)对比保定站与郊区背景站气温资料得到城市热岛效应导致的增暖幅度为0.15℃/10a,城市化贡献率为30.3%。(2)用NCEP/DOE的2m气温再分析资料为背景得到的城市化增温幅度为0.238℃/10a,分离出的城市化贡献率为48.08%。(3)比较城市站与山区背景站资料得出年均气温的城市化增暖幅度为0.216℃/10a,贡献率为43.64%。(4)三种方法计算得出的城市化增温幅度及贡献率各不相同,却一致表明城市化对保定年气温的增暖贡献较为显著。

Based on structuring related air temperature series in three different ways, the article analyzed the in- fluences of urbanization on air temperature changes of Baoding for 33 years （1979-2011）. The results indicated that the warming rate caused by urban heat island effect was 0.15℃ per decade and its urbanization contribution rate was 30.3% compared with the air temperature data of Baoding and outskirts stations. Using the NCEP/DOE reanalysis data in 2 m, the urbanization warming rate was 0.238℃ per decade and the urbanization contribution rate was 48.08%. The warming rate of annual mean air temperature was 0.216℃ per decade and its contribution rate was 43.64% in contrasting the urban and mountainous area stations data. The urbanization warming rates and its contribution rates that calculated in three different methods were different, but the apparent and positive contributions of urbanization to annual air temperature of Baoding were consistent.