马铃薯坏疽病菌在中国的适生区预测及其风险性评估

Prediction of potential distributions and risk analysis of Phoma foveatain China

采用马铃薯坏疽病菌已知分布点和中国14个环境地理变量图层,运用GARP生态位模型结合GIS空间分析模块,对该病原菌在中国的适生区和风险性进行了预测,结果表明,其在甘肃、云南、贵州、四川、新疆、宁夏、江苏、安徽、湖北和湖南等省有较大面积的适生区;在内蒙古、陕西、山西、河南、河北、山东、北京、辽宁、吉林及黑龙江等省市有大面积的适生区,其综合风险值为0.792,具有风险性,需重点监测。本研究为监测和防止马铃薯坏疽病的入侵提供了科学依据。

The gangrene （Phoma foveata）, which was a important disease in storage period of potato tubers, can cause the rotten potato rate more than 30% when the disease seriously occurred. In order to investigate the risk and suitable area of this fungus in China, Desktop GARP （the Genetic algorithm for Rule-set Prediction, GARP） and ArcGIS models were applied to predict potential geographic distribution based on the data about current distribution of P. foveata in world and 14 environmental and geological covariates in China. The results showed that P. foveata survive in part of the following 11 provinces including Gansu, Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Xinjiang, Ningxia, Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei and Hunan. And it could also occur in most area of 10 Provinces including Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Shandong, Beijing, Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang. Comprehensive risk value of P. foveata was 0. 792, which indicated that P. foveata will be a risk microorganism in China and need importantly monitor.