基于系统动力学模型的清河流域产业结构优化研究

Qinghe River Basin Industrial Structure Optimization Based on System Dynamics Model

基于清河流域近年的"经济-社会"现状特点与发展趋势,以2010年为水平基准年,建立清河流域产业结构优化SD模型,将整个系统分为人口及生活子系统、经济子系统、用水子系统和污染物子系统。设置四种情景方案进行模拟,模拟时间为2010年到2020年,通过各个方案结果对比分析选出方案四为最优方案。并根据最优方案提出清河流域产业结构优化的建议,从而为清河流域经济的健康可持续发展提供科学的决策依据。

Based on the status quo and development trend of economic and social features in Qinghe River Basin in recent years, this paper established industrial structure optimization SD model of Qinghe River Basin with 2010 as reference year. The whole system is divided into the sub - systems of population and life, economy, water and pollutants. Four simulated scenarios were set up with simulation time from 2010 to 2020. Four programs were selected through analysis results. Suggestions were proposed to optimize the industrial structure of Qinghe River Basin, providing a scientific basis for the healthy and sustainable development of Qinghe River Basin.